"Russia attacks on Kharkiv front" Topic

Russian forces launched an armoured ground attack on Friday near Ukraine's second city of Kharkiv in the northeast of the country and made small inroads, opening a new front in a war that has long been waged in the east and south…

Reuters: link

I will be interested in how far they get and their losses …

This analyst thinks the war is reaching an inflection point that's not good for Ukraine.

the Russian buildup has reached the point where we can speak of a real inflection point. A Ukrainian collapse at any point could lead to a cascade of further collapses. That is probably what the Russians are up to—shaping the battlefield to produce exactly that result.

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I think that may be true. The Russian numbers may start to come into effect …

Well… That is true for every war and every combatant. You try to shape the battlefield to your advantage to force your opponent to collapse.

Question is, will Russia succeed? I do not think so. There is nothing that points to a Ukrainian collapse.

Aprox 50.000 Rusian soldiers are ready on the Russian frontier to "take" Karkiv… against them there are 9.000 Ucranians…

Nobody knows what is going on there but take a big city as Karkiv with that amount of soldiers is not possible..

In other way… what have at hand the Ucranians to repel the possible attack (taling about war material, trenches, mines, etc).

Another blood bath?

Armand

Nobody knows what is going on there but take a big city as Karkiv with that amount of soldiers is not possible..

The opinion I posted acknowledges that and speculates the goal of the offensive is to draw out and hit the Ukrainian Army hard.

Russia will likely see how Ukraine reacts to the Kharkov incursion, watch where it deploys its reserves, and act accordingly, with potential Sumy and/or Chernigov contingents to come in much later.

The objective here is not to take Kharkov any time soon. That can happen much, much later in an organic fashion as a byproduct of far more exigent objectives, like cutting off the Kupyansk corridor for the AFU. Little by little, Russia will worm its way in and surround Kharkov, which will be besieged and likely fall very slowly, maybe even by mid 2025 or so. They're not in a rush to capture it any time soon as doing so is not necessary for the time being, nor would provide any recognizable strategic benefit.

Remember: the objectives right now are to degrade and destroy the AFU manpower, not to "capture territory"—that will all come as a natural secondary byproduct of its own.

Subject: Ukraine warns northern front has ‘significantly worsened' as Russia claims capture of several villages | CNN


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The Russians have taken very high losses for little to no gains. At the hands of the skilled Ukrainians. Now some in DC what to stop sending them support ? Again, IMO the US has not sent enough of what they need and in a timely manner. But don't get me started on that again …

However, the war is not over …

THE KHARKIV GAMBLE: Russians Meet Fierce Resistance – Ukraine War Map Update

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Russian Attack Stalling in Vovchansk?

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Armand

On the Russian side, only 6 battalions are participating in the battles in this direction. Although, according to Ukrainian estimates, there are another 35 to 50 thousand soldiers in reserve in this direction (and a significant part of them are veterans Wagner and Storm-Z). For an assault or blockade of Kharkov, this is not enough – you need at least twice as much.
I think this is not an offensive yet, but only preparation for it. Now the Russians will stretch and pull apart the Ukrainian troops in different directions and draw upon themselves the reserves still remaining with the Ukrainians. It is still difficult to say where the main blow will be struck. I can also assume that other sections of the border will soon be attacked, where there has been relative calm for a year already, and those to and from where the transfer of Ukrainian troops will be as difficult as possible.
There are also rumors that after Shoigu's removal from the post of Minister of Defense, General Surovikin is returning from Africa. It is likely that it will be he who will lead the Russian offensive.

Report today of the worst one-day losses of the war for Russia. 1,700 men and 72 tanks.

WOW ! Just when it looked like the Russians were gaining a little ground. That is a very, very large body count.

Once upon a time, the Russian general Suvorov, after another victory over the Turks, dictated a report to Empress Catherine. When asked by the clerk how to indicate the losses of the Turks, Suvorov said:
"Why feel sorry for them, basurman, write more!" )))

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The Russians have long since run out of missiles, tanks, gun shells and people… Judging by Ukrainian propaganda)))

If Russia in reality suffered such catastrophic losses, then it is unlikely that a continuous stream of volunteers would go to the front:
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Russian propaganda video: "War until the last Ukrainian." The video makes fun of Ukrainian military registration and enlistment offices:

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It would be funny if it weren't so sad…

What a demonstration of sadistic cynicism towards a horrible tragedy like war… that only those who suffer it in first hand (civilians or soldiers) can really give their opinion… I still don't understand the justification that as my "enemies" are too close to my house… I decide to invade my neighbor's house and in this way I keep my distance from them… and as if that were the real solution to any measure that the "enemies" decide to take against me…

Pure Hitler expansionist mentality… and in the XXI Century!

Second Russian invasion is worse than the first, Kharkiv region evacuees say

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Armand

Hm. That is, when Ukrainians laughed for eight years at the Russian women and children killed in the Donbass, this was not cynicism? Oh yes, these are Ukrainians – they are allowed… Russians are not allowed.

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You are distorting. While Ukraine was neutral, no one invaded there. As long as there was freedom of opinion there, no one invaded there. As long as no one was killed there for dissent, no one invaded there. As long as they did not pose an immediate military threat to Russia, no one invaded there.
Russia has been trying to reach an agreement with the West since 2007. But instead she received the organization of a coup in Ukraine and the danger of NATO troops appearing 400 km from Moscow. So who has the Hitler mentality?

The money allocated for the creation of defensive lines on the border of Ukraine with Russia was stolen…

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So where is the real fight against corruption? Where are the elections? Where is the patriotism and trust in one's authorities?

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Crazy…the US has spent $175 USD BILLION on Ukraine's defense from Congressional funding votes and probably closer to $200 USD BILLION when you factor in all the funding sent directly from the budgets at the State Department and the Defense Department. Seems every week I read how the DoD sends another $400 USD million to Ukraine, or State sends $200 USD million for some reason.

This is the equivalent of TWO YEARS of Russia's national defense spending on a much larger, more complex military.

Where did all the money go??? This is not how to wage or win a war…

Add here the money that was given by Europe…

"Where did all the money go??? This is not how to wage or win a war…"

Are you asking to your own authorities?

Obviously the issue of corruption is very entrenched both in Russia and in several of the countries under its occupation (good school for them during years)… that is not new… nor criticizable when one lives and breathes corruption as a way of life… there are thousands of horrible photos from Russians doing that or worse… that just says that there are really bad people there… but there are in all countries (but not at that level)…

This is similar to the anecdote about the boy at school… bad… dirty… bad student… lazy… aggressive… etc. who one day fights with another and justifies his actions by saying that the other one is worse!…

"As long as there was freedom of opinion there, no one invaded there…"

I don't know whether to laugh or get angry at this phrase… are we talking about the puppet before Selensky?… the super corrupt pro-Russian one?… please!

Selensky was elected by popular vote and there is nothing to say about it… Ukraine is tired of Russia and they want to be independent… anyone who lives in the real world understands that.

Armand

What nonsense is it to say that the Russians are to blame for corruption in Ukraine))) Why not the other way around? Note that the Russians are much more efficient with their money than the Ukrainians (and I'm not just talking about military spending – look at overcoming Western sanctions, for example). And this means that the level of corruption in Russia is much less than in Ukraine.
I also do not see anything that would indicate that Yanukovych was more corrupt than the Ukrainian presidents before and after him. The same "feast of oligarchs". Only before they stole Russian money – now they are stealing yours)))
And, by the way, Yanukovych was no more pro-Russian than pro-Western. It was he who promoted the idea of European integration, which he later abandoned. He just tried to sit on two chairs at once, but his butt was torn)))
Zelensky's presidential term has ended. He is not ready to hold elections even if any Ukrainian official opposition has long been crushed and banned. Now Zelensky is an ordinary dictator…
If Ukrainians wanted to fight against Russia, they would not have to be caught on the streets like animals and driven out of Europe, deprived of their foreign passports.

@Tango

Are you asking to your own authorities?

Obviously the issue of corruption is very entrenched both in Russia and in several of the countries under its occupation (good school for them during years)… that is not new…

Dude -- I live in California, which sometimes feels like living under occupation.

There's no transparency on the nearly $200 USD Billion spent on Ukraine by OUR American Federal Government.

How much was direct aid? Dunno

How much to defense contractors to buy new sh1t to replace the old sh1t we're supposed to have sent to Ukraine. Dunno.

What old sh1t have we sent, is it sitting in a port in the US? On cargo ships? Sitting in port in Ukraine? In Action? dunno, probably the Pentagon barely knows

What we do know is that there is a LOT of War Profiteering going on, that our strategy to push the Ukrainians to go on maneuver offensives in a modern trench war has had pretty cr@ppy results, and our other strategies to isolate Russia, collapse their economy and topple Putin have all failed big time.

What next?

"Dude -- I live in California, which sometimes feels like living under occupation…"

Are you talking seriously?… do you know how is to live under a real Tirany?…

Seriously, in California you go out on the street and shout against the government and then you "disappear" for it.?

Seriously, if you make any comment/action against your government, your family pays the consequences in prison or worse?

Really, do civilians/politicians who want to differentiate themselves from the current regime suffer fatal "accidents" or are they sent to who knows where?

Could anyone really believe that in Russia there was/is/will not be terrible corruption even in military matters?

What are we talking about?… pure denialism?

What next?

Read something about the history of WW2 and Russian history or ask someone who lived through it…

Now I understand why no one here even bothers to comment on yours sayings.

Armand

Just to lighten things up. Our tax dollars at work.
😉 So music is another job he should not have. Some Ukrainians were not pleased with this. All… and of course the MSM made the "required" Trump cut in their article.

Subject: Antony Blinken's guitar diplomacy draws criticism in Ukraine


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Media reported today that the US is rushing ammo, equipment, etc. to support the Ukraine. In its quest to rid their lands of the Russian invaders.

Are you talking seriously?… do you know how is to live under a real Tirany?…

Well, that's a nice way to NOT answer my questions, eh? And is some ways, yes, California is a post-Constitutional Oligarchy. You have uncontested One Party Rule and if you are too vocal in your dissent against the system you will be punished if you work in:

*ANY public employment, from teaching to the various State bureaucracies. Try wearing a MAGA hat and see how long you stay employed -- or just say that Women are Real. See ya!

*MOST Tech companies enforce rigid dogma standards with the help of self appointed employee enforcers. So if you have a dissenting view, you will be fired. A friend of mine worked at Google and organized a daily lunch prayer meeting for fellow Christians. The internal Capos found out, complained he was creating an "unsafe" environment and in less than 2 weeks his 6 year-career at Google was over.

That means you have this bizarre secret code in these environments usually based around movies, sports and music -- what movies do you like? Do you like sports? What music do you like. All sotto voce, and then if you get the right cues maybe you can be forthcoming.

Isn't that how its starts with every Totalitarian regime? Fear and intimidation…threats of punishment if you don't repeat the dogma or dissent. After they got unchallenged power they replaced firing you from your job with the firing squad.

Read something about the history of WW2 and Russian history or ask someone who lived through it…

Now I understand why no one here even bothers to comment on yours sayings.

Oh, please, get overself and get back to me on why I hit such a sore spot. My family has been military going back too many damn centuries in England and then the US, a veritable Lt Dan of service. I have had had friends and family serve in and die in every damn US war since the Revolution (my Dad's side was on the Redcoat side, btw). That's why there's not many of muy family left. Long term professional military service as a family tradition is ultimately a genetic dead end.

WW2? Too much family experience, like my Uncle who took Japanese shrapnel in the head in the Pacific and back at home would go into manic range episodes that were dangerous and only Opiates could calm him down.

WW1
WW2
Korea
Vietnam
Cold War
Grenada
Gulf War
Desert Storm
Afghanistan
East Africa

All the wonderful places of the world… I've had friends and family serve in America's modern wars and get injured, get PTSD, and in once case take his own life because of chronic pain from injury and PTSD, another's PTSD destroyed family relationships.

More $$ for Veterans and less for illegals, please!

So you ain't the only person here with a back story and personal emotions. My backstory isn't special. Wargaming, especially historical wargaming, skews towards an older demographic -- many of whom are military and combat veterans, which I am not. So remember who you're speaking with here, we ain't a bunch of kids who've never experienced life.

And MY backstory leads me to believe that:

1. You don't go to war lightly. You don't posture and chest beat, issue bogus "redline" statements you aren't willing to back up, you give clear signals of "If you do this, we ill do THAT" instead of vague handwaving like Biden's soft green light to Putin in 2022 when he said the US wouldn't respond to a "minor incursion" by Russia into Ukraine.

2. Once you make the fateful decision you must fight you define what victory looks like. Is it total war? Is it to prevent the defeat of an ally short of total war?

3. Then you resource it, you fight it, you win it as quickly as you can because every serviceperson you put in harm's way is someone's beloved son or daughter, husband or wife, brother or sister, or friend.

What you don't do is spend two years screwing around without a plan to victory (which can include a negotiated peace), and throw loads of cash without oversight and transparency to make sure that the resources are getting to the battlefield or where they need to go and not some bastard$ private Swiss Bank account or politically connected cronies. You don't allow the money and resources to float about and then find out as an article above, and others, that $$ and resources allocated to defending, I dunno, say the City of Kharkiv, with belts of mines, anti-tank obstacles and defensive positions went walk about and now the Russians can advance almost unimpeded by Ukrainian defenses.

That's a big damn problem!

You know what else you don't' do if you're serious? You don't believe you own PR and then push your poorly prepared and outnumbered ally to launch maneuver offensives to score some homefront PR points to support your artificially prolonged war and piss-poor battlefield dreams when it's a WW1-style trenh-war attrition fight. You don't turn the war into a domestic political issue you use to attack your political opponents with.

Get where I'm coming from? I don't want to see Ukraine defeated, but if you're not happy with the conduct of the war speak up, Ace!

…and our other strategies to isolate Russia, collapse their economy and topple Putin have all failed big time.

Actually, the Russians are having significant problems with their oil and gas now. Can't get the parts or the know-how to rebuild damaged infrastructure. Building anti-drone cages on infrastructure. And rather than driving global oil and gas prices up, this is having the opposite effect.

These are wonderful problems. This means that factories for the production of our own equipment will now be restored. Russia can produce everything. Even if sometimes it is technology that is 30 years out of date, it can be overcome.
No one has done as much for the revival and strengthening of Russia as the current West. Thank you very much)))

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This is where your money lies. These are the very formidable fortifications in the Kharkov direction that Zelensky passionately told you about. Russian soldiers laugh, calling them "dragon lips" (in Russian the words teeth and lips are consonant)))) And you know – the Russian "dragon tooth" weighs one and a half tons, and the Ukrainian one – 900 kg. They stole it even here)))

The war has been going on for two and a half years… They didn't have time?
I feel sorry for the Ukrainians, who were betrayed by everyone, starting with their own government.

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SBminisguy …

"Well, that's a nice way to NOT answer my questions, eh? And is some ways, yes, California is a post-Constitutional Oligarchy. You have uncontested One Party Rule and if you…"

It seems to me that there is confusion here… I do not at any time discuss the military/political/economic actions of the USA or NATO… what I maintain is that Russia is the aggressor, that it is a country with a horrible tradition towards its neighbors and that has an autocratic and corrupt government very similar to that of the Nazis…that they cares nothing about the lives of his own people and even less about the pain or destruction of civilians from other countries that they decide to invade…

What did catch my attention was your phrase about living under a tyranny (or military-type occupation) and I understand that you feel that way because of your detail… but that is FAR AWAY from living under a regime like the Russian, Venezuelan, Cuban , Iranian or similar… having lived in a military tyranny and visited/known first-hand what it is living in some of the places I mention…I maintain that there is no comparison to suffering between truly democratic countries with that dark side of humanity.

I agree with the terrible mistakes made towards Ukraine by the West… it seems that it is something they have been doing for some time (Afghanistan, etc.) but even if the help is little… at the wrong time… useless It's help… on the other side there is pure death and destruction without any real cause.

Armand

A report I heard today stated NATO does not believe the Russians, after taking high losses recently, don't have the assets/numbers to do any large offensive ops.

SBm +10

I agree with the terrible mistakes made towards Ukraine by the West…

Yes IMO #1 is the US dragging its feet sending more heavy support/equipment to Ukraine much, much sooner. The rest of NATO and other nations did a pretty good job sending equipment to support Ukraine. But IF the US had sent more support much sooner along with NATO+.

The Ukraine's superior fighting abilities vs the Russians, more and sooner US support may have allowed the Ukraine to push the invaders of their lands. Plus, just imagine the Russian losses if the Ukraine had all the equipment from the US + NATO, etc. they need in larger numbers sooner.

But again, the US leaders being risk adverse and fearing
escalation. May have left the Ukraine out on a limb … As opposed to Vietnam and A'stan … the host nation i.e. Ukraine … they will fight just give them the support they need. We don't have to have forces on the ground.

Armand, I think get what both of you are saying.

My opinions…We do have it good here in the US, but SB lives in CA and there are plenty of issues there relative to other states and to the original vision of our Founders regarding personal freedoms. We are not overtly under anyone's boot, but we appear to be critically wounded by the politics of division and face danger from within – a powerful and wealthy oligarchy, a ruling class of self interest, all but immune from consequences.

The voices of the people say something is wrong in a thousand ways, but as a whole we do not quite understand exactly what, or what to do, or if we even can do anything to end this nightmare. And now we don't believe in each other too much of the time. Opinion…

USA ! USA ! USA ! But soon will the chant become USSA ! USSA ! USSA !???

There are many Marxists, socialists, woke, left, progressives, etc. in the US gov't and elsewhere. Many are very wealthy that support these groups. In the big picture they are a small very vocal well-funded minority. But IMO they are threat and behind many things that are going on here. E.g. BLM, Antifa, CRT/1619, DEI, Hamas riots, etc. but they try to not make it obvious. Until it may be too late …

Thanks…. at least I understand you and you understand me…

Armand

IMO there are more groups to add to that list Legion, but they are all symptoms of discontent with the way things appear to stand. No matter what happens later this year, it will not change this,I believe.

The list is long of all the usual suspects and others … We will have to see what happens, yes, later this year.